The power of the other candidates...It's possible that a third-party spoiler may tip the election.(From The L.A. Times)
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By Douglas E. Schoen
September 29, 2008
The presidential election could well turn on a factor that has gotten virtually no discussion this year -- the votes drawn by Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Cynthia McKinney and independent Ralph Nader.
The most recent polls show a race too tight to call: Gallup tracking from Sept. 23 showed Barack Obama up only three points with 47% to John McCain's 44%. More interesting is a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Sept. 22 that includes all five candidates for president. McCain is at 45%, Obama is at 48%, and Barr, McKinney and Nader are polling a combined 6% of the vote. (Nader captured 4% and Barr and McKinney each got 1%.) In a close contest, the support for any of these three could well decide which major party comes out ahead nationally and in key swing states.
The most recent polls show a race too tight to call: Gallup tracking from Sept. 23 showed Barack Obama up only three points with 47% to John McCain's 44%. More interesting is a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Sept. 22 that includes all five candidates for president. McCain is at 45%, Obama is at 48%, and Barr, McKinney and Nader are polling a combined 6% of the vote. (Nader captured 4% and Barr and McKinney each got 1%.) In a close contest, the support for any of these three could well decide which major party comes out ahead nationally and in key swing states.
Indeed, the most recent state polling from CNN/Opinion Research to include third-party candidates bears this point out. Taken earlier this month, the poll found that in Missouri, where McCain had a four-point lead, Nader had 3% and Barr had 2%. In New Hampshire, where Obama had a five-point lead, 48% to McCain's 43%, Nader had 4% and Barr had 2%. In Michigan, where Obama led McCain by only two points, Nader has 6% and Barr 2%.
Other polls suggest an even more dramatic situation brewing with Barr, McCain's biggest third-party concern. Zogby International polls last month showed Barr approaching 11% in New Hampshire, 10% in Nevada and 8% in Ohio.
What accounts for such levels of support?
Other polls suggest an even more dramatic situation brewing with Barr, McCain's biggest third-party concern. Zogby International polls last month showed Barr approaching 11% in New Hampshire, 10% in Nevada and 8% in Ohio.
What accounts for such levels of support?
Most important, there is widespread -- and growing -- dissatisfaction with the major parties in America. Even the initial rise of Obama was in large part attributable to frustration with the political system and response to his call for a nonpartisan outsider to change Washington. McCain's ongoing resurgence similarly can be attributed, at least in part, to his return to the maverick reformer message of his 2000 campaign. Even the popularity of his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, at its very core stems from a desire for new faces, new ideas and alternatives.
However, Obama has had to go negative, McCain has flip-flopped time and again from the maverick of old to the GOP's status quo, and the Palin effect is wearing off as the governor's politics appear to be no different from those inside the Beltway. Disenchanted voters are not fooled for long by rhetoric. As the major-party candidates show their true colors, many of these voters will start turning toward third-party alternatives.
There's also a wild card: Libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who sought the GOP nomination and has continued to attract fervent supporters to his "Campaign for Liberty" attacking big government and the two-party system. After months of bickering with the Libertarian Barr, last week he threw his support behind yet another alternative party candidate, Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party. With Barr having raised nearly $1 million and becoming a growing presence in many states, adding a Paul-supported Baldwin to the mix could be disastrous for McCain, who could lose votes to both alternative candidates.
A third-party candidate in an election this close doesn't need double-digit support to be a spoiler. History has shown that third-party candidates can gain a large percentage, as in the case of Ross Perot, who reached close to 20% of the vote in 1992, and George Wallace, who almost gained 14% of the vote in 1968. But neither of those had the impact of Nader's single-digit percentage in the 2000 election. Nader's 90,000 votes in Florida were a crucial factor in an election that came down to George W. Bush's victory in Florida by slightly more than 500 votes.
To be clear, this election is coming down to the wire, as it did in 2000, making real the possibility of a third-party spoiler tipping the election one way or the other. As the polls stand now, with Obama holding slight leads nationally and in many swing states, Nader's 4% could siphon off enough votes to thrust McCain into the White House. That said, if Barr steals 8% of the Ohio vote from McCain, Obama will almost certainly win the presidency.
So in the waning days of the election, it's not the biggest poll percentages that demand scrutiny, but the smallest ones. Because it could turn out that the crucial role in the 2008 election will be played by a candidate no one is talking about.
Douglas E. Schoen, a pollster, is the author of "Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System." He was an advisor to President Clinton from 1994 to 2000.
However, Obama has had to go negative, McCain has flip-flopped time and again from the maverick of old to the GOP's status quo, and the Palin effect is wearing off as the governor's politics appear to be no different from those inside the Beltway. Disenchanted voters are not fooled for long by rhetoric. As the major-party candidates show their true colors, many of these voters will start turning toward third-party alternatives.
There's also a wild card: Libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who sought the GOP nomination and has continued to attract fervent supporters to his "Campaign for Liberty" attacking big government and the two-party system. After months of bickering with the Libertarian Barr, last week he threw his support behind yet another alternative party candidate, Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party. With Barr having raised nearly $1 million and becoming a growing presence in many states, adding a Paul-supported Baldwin to the mix could be disastrous for McCain, who could lose votes to both alternative candidates.
A third-party candidate in an election this close doesn't need double-digit support to be a spoiler. History has shown that third-party candidates can gain a large percentage, as in the case of Ross Perot, who reached close to 20% of the vote in 1992, and George Wallace, who almost gained 14% of the vote in 1968. But neither of those had the impact of Nader's single-digit percentage in the 2000 election. Nader's 90,000 votes in Florida were a crucial factor in an election that came down to George W. Bush's victory in Florida by slightly more than 500 votes.
To be clear, this election is coming down to the wire, as it did in 2000, making real the possibility of a third-party spoiler tipping the election one way or the other. As the polls stand now, with Obama holding slight leads nationally and in many swing states, Nader's 4% could siphon off enough votes to thrust McCain into the White House. That said, if Barr steals 8% of the Ohio vote from McCain, Obama will almost certainly win the presidency.
So in the waning days of the election, it's not the biggest poll percentages that demand scrutiny, but the smallest ones. Because it could turn out that the crucial role in the 2008 election will be played by a candidate no one is talking about.
Douglas E. Schoen, a pollster, is the author of "Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System." He was an advisor to President Clinton from 1994 to 2000.
Comments (18)
My prediction...Obama +6% on the popular vote...I'll lay the 6..wanna bet?
50 songs..
I would but you maybe right...
The question is... Who's gonna be the fall guy?
Maybe if the music thing doesn't work out, MOG can become the political gambling hot spot on the web..We should at least have a percentage pool for the five candidates, that could be fun.
My pick:
49% - Obama
43%- McCain
3% - Barr
3% - Nader
1% - Mckinney
Oh hell! I totally missed the track! SWEET! Killer cover!
Cody B : That sounds like a plan:
48% - Obama
42%- McCain
5% - Barr
4% - Nader
2% - Mckinney
Doomsayer2001 : Devo's a great band for bands to cover...
The mere existence of Ralph Nader is an affront to the gods, and Cynthia McKinney is a coocoo bird (i live in the Atlanta area).
Why do we have two Georgia nutbars embarrassing the state this year? Used to be that the real crazies were all from Texas. (Molly Ivins: "We gave you Lyndon Johnson. And, damn you, you gave him back.")
(I apologise for the cut intro and the nasty edit in the first line; that's the only way it's currently available.)
"Cynthia McKinney is a coocoo bird "
I can't argue with you there. I think she's high most of the time IMHO...
You should have been in Atlanta when her father was her campaign manager...
Little as i like Nader, having her for a candidate is a dtep or two downward for the Greens.
Can I just say that I like the Devo covers - and belabor the idea that Palin was an unqualified, ill-educated, and retrograde choice that made a mockery of the McCain campaign?
No - tell us what you really think.
Don't feel like you have to hold back and spare our feelings...
Spoiler is right. I'm all for reforming our 2-party system, since it has clearly become perverted and impotent in a lot of ways, but I refuse to vote for someone who I think would do a bad job, just to make a point. Especially if my symbolic gesture helps the greater of 2 evils to prevail. I encourage anyone considering voting for Nader to keep their eye on the prize this year.
I realize that he's brilliant, experienced, and committed, but I can't think of anyone who is further from being, acting or even posing as presidential than Ralph Nader; I worked for the man, and found him to be confrontatonal, stubborn, isolated, and convinced of his own rightness at all times and on all topics. He is either unwilling or unable to compromise, and as far as I can tell completely incapable of working with people who don't agree with him. Isn't that part of what being a good citizen and public servant means? This administration and the last 8 years notwithstanding, the last time I checked, our electoral process was supposed to represent fairness and equal access for people with diverse - - if not divergent - - beliefs, so that we can avoid having civil strife every time there is a succession of leadership.
I blame Nader for 2000, and 2004 is more hazy, but dearly I hope that 2008 is not something else that I will have to hold against him. As much as I love Tina Fey's Sarah Palin impersonation, I pray I never have to see it again after November 5th...
I do believe I've posted that cover of Girl U Want myself! I likes it!
Mike the Knife : Two of the best covers out there IMHO. I like Palin, I just think she needs to take a speech class lol. Biden is a great speaker, I think he did great on the debates.
mullytron: I'm a Ron Paul guy myself, he has a very realistic undrstanding on issue's.
RON PAUL INTERVIEWED BY JOHN STOSSEL for 20/20
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/01042008/watch2.html
Bill Moyer & Ron Paul
fairpoint:
No - "tell us what you really think.
Don't feel like you have to hold back and spare our feelings..."
Is that statement for me or Mike?
Perot put Clinton in the White House, and Nader looked like a statistical problem in 2000, but Jeb Bush put his brother in office while Gov. of FL. No doubt.
Can't believe that we still haven't figured out the voting process... we could easily have double blind protocols, so we know that everyone voted only once, we count their votes (x=x+1 can be implemented by any programmer with at least 2 hours of experience) and all without knowing who voted for whom, and respecting privacy... we could also do the whole thing on line... and yes, the voting centers could have internet access (most already do) with wireless backup so there isn't a timing issue, but more to the point, you could vote from home - at any point in time, during the run up to the election - safely - with the same dongle and rotating access hash that you use now to log in to any decent internet banking account. (one that cares about authentication and security anyway...)
V
vannatta: I remember that whole thing with Bush back then. Knew electronic voting was going to be a problem when I first heard about it.
BTW I voted for Ross P. back then, a guy I use to work with made a pack with me to vote for him. Heard that scared the two parties, that's why you don't see a third party in the debats with the other two anymore.
I voted for Perot too... and remember Tom Brokaw saying that the "Paddy Wagon" would be turning up for the 20% of us in the country that did vote for the guy - I just wanted someone that didn't bend over to get where he was in politics to give it a shot...
Now everything is down to statistics, focus groups, undecided reactions on CNN while you're watching, and I think that is swaying the country one way or the other too... certainly makes a lot of people stay home on election day (sadly) thinking that they can't stem the tide.
Cheers!
Van
"a lot of people stay home on election day (sadly) thinking that they can't stem the tide."
I wonder though, should everyone vote? I think people who haven't researched shouldn't . I think people need to hear this, and they might be driven to do some homework on the candidates.